So I’m writing this moonshot reply during a large crypto decline. BTC is down some 40% from its all-time high and the total market cap (TOTAL) is down about 34.8%. It’s either the dumbest time to buy or the best.
If you’re intrepid enough to go in on a moonshot now, let’s look at 3 prospects that might fit the Late Launch strategy.
1. The Late Launch Strategy
A while back, I wrote a piece for my site that describes in some detail what I call the late launch strategy.
When the market was running hot (about 6 weeks ago) people were flooding me with questions about how to get in on the latest IDOs. Here’s the problem with most coins as they are first released. Below is an image of JASMY, taking data from Coinbase.
The coins usually pump with anticipation and excitement for a while, and then they die off as the emotional high dies.
This gives you a basic principle for IDO trading: get in early and get out early. The excitement that’s there vanishes quickly.
When Astroport launched on Terra (about 1 month ago) I was an early LP provider and I received an airdrop worth about 66% of my initial investment. Members of my Discord channel (The Art of the Bubble) asked if I would keep it to see if it would “moon.”
I sold it before they could even ask. A 66% return for a 2-week hold is a great trade. And when you’re dealing with initial launches, you need to get out early.
But then there’s the predictable decline. It usually takes months. Maybe more than a year. People lose interest in the project because the coin is losing value, not because the project isn’t good.
This opens an opportunity for Late Launch coins. If you can find good coins that are really depressed in value, you’ve just stumbled on a great way to make moonshot returns.
Notably, market dips and crashes accelerate the time you need to wait to find these so that bargains are everywhere.
The process requires you to do some research as if you were a venture capitalist. Again, you’ll probably want to read this post here to understand it better. Here are some of the questions you need answered.
I’m quoting from my website:
Is there a proven use case for the project?
How large is that user base and how certain can we be about that?
Notably, disruptive tech fares best because it is replacing an existing market and so the use case is both well-known and easily measured.
How well prepared is the white paper? Look at Jack Dorsey’s TBDex white paper. This is the gold standard for how a white paper should look. It is technical, without getting bogged down in the mathematics of the project. And it is professionally presented.
Can this project actually be realized? Why haven’t others done it?
How does it deal with commonly known attacks, flaws, or problems?
What’s the architecture of the project look like? It is simple enough? Does it make sense?
Is the project just a matter of coding and launching a coin, or will it additionally involve the manufacture of equipment or its installation (say by kiosks)?
Finally, even if a userbase exists, is that user base sophisticated enough to work with cryptocurrencies? Gamer’s adopting NFTs, for example, is easy, but the average public member isn’t there yet.
Does the team have the resources …
Technologically? Who are the active developers?
Legally? Who do they have to sort out the needed agreements?
Promotionally? Have they at least partnered with someone?
Financially? What capital has already been committed?
What are the tokenomics of the project?
What will incentivize long-term holding?
What are the vesting periods?
What are the number of GitHub lines?
How many active commits a month?
Is it coded well and how easy will it be for other developers to use that code?
Is the company hitting its milestones?
How is the publicity campaign faring?
Yes, it’s a lot of work. I pay a team of research assistants to help me in answering these questions. My subscribers, even at just the $15 level on Patreon (The Art of the Bubble — you’ll have to search it because I only link free stuff on Quora) get the results of these reports.
After that work, when possible, we even line up the founders of these projects and chat virtually with them.
You need that analysis to have an informed opinion about what you’re going to buy. If you want to just gamble, go to Las Vegas. At least they give you free booze.
3 Possible Selections
I’ve long held that there will be great NFT bargains during a big dip and especially during a crypto winter. So, I’m eyeing these coins especially. I’m also looking at Web3 coins that have obvious use cases.
$LORDZ
This is an 8-bit game that is basically an RPGM game centered on questing through a dream landscape filled with memes. The twist is that your items are all NFTs.
The game now uses Chainlink to ensure that all NFT holds are integrated and stored appropriately. And you can play it by “loading your saved game” as long as you have your MetaMask wallet installed.
The team was smart in thinking about the tokenomics of the project. Here’s a link to their discussion.
Currently, 82.9m of 100m tokens are in circulation, so that you won’t face lots of coin dilution. They have a burning mechanism for the tokens (to make it quasi-deflationary), and you must own 100 $LORDZ tokens to play the game.
You also need to use $LORDZ tokens in the game. If you capture a meme in the game, to mint it, you have to burn $LORDZ. From their own website.
50% of the $Lordz minting fee will be pooled and redistributed to holders of $Lordz.
25% of the $Lordz minting fee will be permanently burnt from the supply.
25% of the $Lordz minting fee will be pooled for ongoing server costs.
The tokenomics thus incentivize holding and there is a use case for any player.
Finally, if we look at making projections, LORDZ has a tiny $555k market cap right now.
It could do 1000x and that would put it only at $500m in market cap.
$PRE
This is a legitimate Web3 application (see my walkthrough of the entire crypto space in the post below) and it’s easy to understand: it’s Google on the blockchain. Yes, Google.
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